Tropical Storm KRISTY Advisory Thu Sep 13

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2012

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME   12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       2      10      32      42
TROP DEPRESSION  3       6       7       9      30      39      35
TROPICAL STORM  92      76      63      59      51      27      21
HURRICANE        5      17      29      30       9       2       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        5      15      25      24       8       2       1
HUR CAT 2        1       2       4       5       1       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       2       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    55KT    60KT    60KT    45KT    30KT    25KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   3( 3)   8(11)   3(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

P VALLARTA     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  2  31(33)  20(53)   4(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   6( 6)  12(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
FORECASTER ROBERTS