Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory Thu Oct 01

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 69 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED PINHOLE 10-NM EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON THE CONCENTRIC DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 10W IS TRACKING UNDER THE
COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR): ONE TO THE
NNE AND ANOTHER TO THE ESE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 12, TY MAYSAK WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN ON A MORE POLEWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STR TO THE
ESE RECEDES EQUATORWARD AND THE STR TO THE NNE ADJUSTS EASTWARD,
BUILDS, AND BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
120KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 105KTS BY TAU 36 PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
AFTER LANDFALL AROUND TAU 42, LAND INTERACTION OVER THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN
RANGES OF SOUTH KOREA AND NORTH KOREA, AND STRONG VWS WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE TY 10W DOWN TO 30KTS AFTER IT CROSSES INTO RUSSIA. CONCURRENTLY
BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
THAT IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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