Tropical Storm DUJUAN Advisory Wed Feb 17

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS FORMATIVE RAIN
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS OFFSET NORTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING
IN THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LLC
FEATURE IN THE 171157Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30KTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS
FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE OF
T2.0/30KTS TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED 6-HR EIR STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST WESTWARD AND POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING AMPLE VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION, AND
WARM (29-30C) ALONG-TRACK SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 01W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 60KTS BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHERN MINDANAO.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 01W WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE
ARCHIPELAGO, AND BY TAU 120, WILL REACH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OFF THE
ISLAND OF MINDORO. INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS AND INCREASED VWS
WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UKMET THE SOLE RIGHT OF TRACK
OUTLIER, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN