Tropical Storm TWENTYNINE Advisory Tue Nov 07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
183 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK, THAILAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION LOOSELY FEEDING INTO A WEAK
AND OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A 070309Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE PASS AND SUPPORTED BY THE 070600Z PGTW DVORAK FIX OF T1.0.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 30 CELSIUS. HOWEVER, LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE MALAY PENINSULA IS BEGINNING TO INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TD 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
20 KNOTS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF PRACHUAP KHIRI KHAN,
THAILAND, BEFORE TAU 12. AFTER TAU 18, IT WILL CROSS THE MALAY
PENINSULA AND EXIT INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA REGAINING TD STRENGTH BY TAU
36 AS OUTFLOW AND VENTILATION IMPROVE. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, TD 29W
WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ANDAMAN ISLANDS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 72, TD 29W WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE BAY OF
BENGAL. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR
TERM, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU
36. AFTERWARD, THE MODEL SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT AS THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS LOSE THE VORTEX, LEADING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN