Tropical Storm DAMREY Advisory Thu Nov 02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ANIMATED LOOP ALSO SHOWS A
POSSIBLE FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 020226Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX OF
T3.0 FROM PGTW, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KNOTS
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 KNOT WIND BARBS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 28W HAS
GOOD OUTFLOW BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD. THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS IT TAPS INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. TS DAMREY IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS A STR LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS TS 28W TRACKS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND EXPERIENCES ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IT
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, EVENTUALLY PEAKING AROUND 80 KNOTS BY TAU
36. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND AS IT
APPROACHES AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM PRIOR TO TAU 48.
CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE INDO CHINA
PENINSULA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, REACHING FULL DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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