Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory Thu Aug 16

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN
EYE IS ABOUT TO FORM AS CONVECTIVE BANDS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SUBSIDENCE AND SHEAR ALONG THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT PERSIST, AS EVIDENCED BY THE SHARP OUTLINE.
HOWEVER, THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG AND IS LIKELY THE
MAIN FACTOR FOR THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OVER EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE
TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS) BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF LEIZHOU PENINSULA
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL, TYPHOON KAI-TAK WILL RAPIDLY
DECAY DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST.    //
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