Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory Thu Jul 02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A SLOWLY-
DEVELOPING LLCC. A 012327Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 10W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VWS AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A STR LOCATED TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 10W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXTENSION OF THE STR.
MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST; HOWEVER, WARM STT AND HIGH OHC VALUES IN
THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE, LEADING TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TD 10W. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM; HOWEVER, DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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