Tropical Storm SINLAKU Advisory Sat Nov 29

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290606Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE CURVED BANDING IS DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW. TS SINLAKU IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS SINLAKU IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06 THEN TRACK INLAND,
DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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