Tropical Storm MAWAR Advisory Sun Jun 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RAGGED, BANDING EYE THAT IS SLIGHTLY OBSCURED BY CIRRUS. A
SERIES OF SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGES (022140Z AND 022340Z) DETAIL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE BANDING EYE WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED
IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW INDICATING 90 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OF TY 04W.
ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS WEAK OVER THE LLCC
DUE TO A SUSTAINED POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE. HOWEVER, VWS IS
MODERATE (20 KNOTS) JUST EAST OF TAIWAN DUE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS VWS IS PROBABLY THE CAUSE OF LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ADVECTION OF A RELATIVELY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS LOCATED BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT. TY MAWAR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS
ANCHORED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING, EXTENDING FROM THE
CYCLOGENISIS CURRENTLY FORMING JUST SOUTH OF JAPAN, WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING THE STR TO WEAKEN ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY THUS CAUSING TY 04W TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 36 AS OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE MAXIMUM FORECAST INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KNOTS BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE BANDING
EYE AND IS SUSTAINED FROM TAUS 24-36 TO CAPTURE THE NEXT DIURNAL
MAXIMUM CYCLE. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 INCREASING VWS IS EXPECTED
TO STIFLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS TY 04W APPROACHES ZONAL
WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
CROSSED 25 DEGREES NORTH INTO LESS FAVORABLE SST VALUES (LESS THAN
25C) AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MUCH COOLER SST (LESS THAN
23C) AND INTO HIGHER VWS. BY TAU 96, THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETE ETT
AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THIS IS THE REASON
FOR DROPPING THE TAU 120 POSITION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT ENVELOPE IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST AGREES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE CPA TO KADENA AB HAS DECREASED BY ONLY SIX NM OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 120 NM TO 114 NM CURRENTLY.//
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