Tropical Storm TEMBIN Advisory Mon Dec 25

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 33W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 33W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 250230Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI. A
250231Z ASCAT (METOP-B) 25-KM PARTIAL IMAGE INDICATES 40 TO 45 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THEREFORE, BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND ASCAT DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, WHICH IS HEDGED BELOW THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5/4.5 (55/77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL VALUES OF
SST NEAR 26C. TS 33W IS TRACKING STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF VIETNAM NEAR TAU 24 WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS TEMBIN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF
THAILAND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES THE
MALAY PENINSULA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
200NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48, HOWEVER, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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