Tropical Storm NAKRI Advisory Sat Aug 02

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (NAKRI) WARNING NR
01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
BROADLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND THE CURRENT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS 90 TO 110
NM BASED ON A 020159Z ASCAT IMAGE. A 020438Z NOAA-19 IMAGE INDICATES
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. BASED ON THE MSI, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS RECENT SHIP
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM. A 020437Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION SUPPORTS
A WARM-CORE SYSTEM AND SHOWS A DEFINED WARM ANOMALY OF +2C. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 25 TO
26C. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND ESTABLISHES
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS NAKRI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SHARPLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE STR AND INTO MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TS
12W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST,
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 AND WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE KOREAN
PENINSULA WITH THE REMNANTS EMERGING OVER THE EAST SEA AFTER TAU 60.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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