Issued: 1000 Monday 1st October 2018
Duty forecaster: David Hulse
Settled at first in the south and east but becoming more changeable as rain in the north and west moves east.
The main focus on rain is across the north and west at first, with high pressure bringing more settled weather, and warmer temperatures to the south and east for a time. However, much more unsettled generally heading into the weekend with the prospect of some heavy rain, strong winds and chilly temperatures.
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A ridge of high pressure over Southern Britain, with a cold frontal trough over Scotland and Northern Ireland moving south as a weakening feature. Rain or drizzle over Scotland and Ireland spreading south into northern and central parts of England and Wales but turning light and patchier. Sunny intervals develop to the north, with some showers into western areas, while the south and east will stay largely dry with some sunshine. Highs 11 to 15C in the north, warmer at 19 to 21C in the south.
The ridge starts to decline as low pressure to the southwest of Ireland, deepens and moves northeast. Rain, becoming heavy at times, over Wales, Northern England and the south of Ireland, moving north and east but much of the south and east of England will stay dry and bright. Confidence in distribution of rain low to moderate. Highs a cool 10 to 13C for northern and central areas, 19 or 20C in the far south.
A complex low and associated frontal troughs will affect the British Isles. Rain, some heavy, in the north and west will move slowly east and south, accompanied by a strengthening wind, with sunshine and isolated showers following from the west. Cloudier over Scotland with rain or drizzle, especially in the north and west. Cool, highs 9 to 13C.
Low pressure near to Southeast England will move away east, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build, but with a cold front moving southeast to affect the north and west. Rain in the east and south of England at first will clear with many parts having dry weather and some sunshine. However, rain or drizzle and a brisk south or southwest wind will return to the north and west. Highs 9 to 13C.
A waving frontal trough will affect the north and west, with high pressure to the south of Britain. Rain or drizzle, some heavy, in the north and west, dry and brighter in the south and east. Highs 12 to 15C.
A waving frontal trough over the north and west may edge south and east for a time before returning north as a deepening low develops. Rain in the north and west, becoming heavy with a risk of strong winds. Mostly dry and brighter in the southeast. Highs 13 to 17C.