Issued: Monday 30th October 2017
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Garry Nicholson
There are significant conflicting signals for the weather regime that dominates in December.
Signals for some time have been that higher pressure would be in evidence in december, but where will this be centred? Models tend to want to put the high south of the Uk bringing about a milder southwest flow, whereas analogue techniques suggest the high is west of Ireland which would lead to colder northwest winds.
We currently favour a middle line between these too where the south is generally drier than average with near normal rain to the north. The month generally sees average to mild temperatures, but there will also be occasions when the northwest wind settles in bringing a few days of colder weather too.
A more unsettled spell of weather is expected during January.
The jet stream is expected over or to the south of the country bringing windier, wetter conditions.
It is likely that after seeing temperatures close to average or above average at the start of the month things could turn colder later.
Perhaps look for some wintry weather after mid-month?