most recent model run

                               
Base
Fr 02.02 00 UTC

Temperature High (2m) ECMWF Seasonal

Model:

Times Series from the ECMWF

Updated:
Update monthly
Greenwich Mean Time:
12:00 UTC = 13:00 BST
Resolution:
1.0° x 1.0°
Parameter:
Maximum Temperature at 2 metres above the ground
Description:
This map shows the highest temperature between 6 to 12 and 12 to 18 UTC. Though the modeled 2m-temperature often is not in agreement with the actual observation, together with 1. the temperature at 850 hPa, 2. SYNOP reports 3. and a skillful synoptic meteorologist, excellent Tmax 2m forecasts are possible.
Introduction to seasonal forecasting:
The production of seasonal forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts, has undergone a huge transformation in the last few decades: from a purely academic and research exercise in the early '90s to the current situation where several meteorological forecast services, throughout the world, conduct routine operational seasonal forecasting activities. Such activities are devoted to providing estimates of statistics of weather on monthly and seasonal time scales, which places them somewhere between conventional weather forecasts and climate predictions.
 
In that sense, even though seasonal forecasts share some methods and tools with weather forecasting, they are part of a different paradigm which requires treating them in a different way. Instead of trying to answer to the question "how is the weather going to look like on a particular location in an specific day?", seasonal forecasts will tell us how likely it is that the coming season will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than 'usual' for that time of year. This kind of long term predictions are feasible due to the behaviour of some of the Earth system components which evolve more slowly than the atmosphere (e.g. the ocean, the cryosphere) and in a predictable fashion, so their influence on the atmosphere can add a noticeable signal.
©Copernicus
Temperature High (2m) ECMWF Fr 02.02.2024 00 UTC
Mouseover effect
Times:   
 
 
available      
 
selected      
 
available (previous base)     
 
not available