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Tropical Storm HALONG Advisory Sat Nov 09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR
027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 558 NM
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE EXPOSED LLCC,
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS BASED ON A 082045Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47
KTS AND A 082340Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 49 KTS. MULTI-
AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
T1.5-2.5 (25-35 KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD DUE TO THE RAGGED NATURE OF THE
STORM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 24W EXISTS IN A REGION OF
HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LOW (LESS THAN 25
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). DESPITE THIS, THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. TS 24W IS TRACKING WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. THE SHEARED CONVECTION IS ASSESSED TO BE TRANSITIONING
FROM A TROPICAL TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 24W WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ETT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 24. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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