Tropical Storm KHANUN Advisory Fri Oct 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
     TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AREA OF BANDING CONVECTION SHOWING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON A 122019Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM PAGASA. THESE DATA SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING
INTO A DETERIORATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED OVER
LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM RJTD.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER, YET MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE IN-PHASE  WESTWARD SYSTEM TRACK.
CURRENTLY TS 24W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
     A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
     B. TS 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND CONSOLIDATE FURTHER. UNOBSTRUCTED
BY LAND TS 24W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS HINDERING OUTFLOW ON
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE POSSIBILITY
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE TAIWAN AND LUZON STRAITS IS ANTICIPATED, GREATLY
EXTENDING THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM.
     C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TS 24W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER HAINAN NEAR TAU 72 AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
AROUND TAU 72 SHIFTING THE TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF
TONKIN MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN JUST AFTER TAU 96 OVER VIETNAM. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE FURTHER. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BOTH SPEED AND THE GENERAL
WESTERN MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER THERE IS A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACKER POSITIONS BEGINNING AROUND TAU 12 AS TS 24W
FURTHER CONSOLIDATES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
CARRIED FORWARD IN LATER TAUS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
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