Tropical Storm PATTY Advisory Thu Oct 11

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK
ESTIMATE. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A BUILDING LOW-
LEVEL RIDGE INCREASES THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHILE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD
SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE SHEARING APART IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE DISSIPATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT...180/01.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION A
SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS THROUGH THAT TIME.

SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH DISSIPATION...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOT NEEDED FOR THOSE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 25.4N  72.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 25.1N  73.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 24.9N  73.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN