MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OBSCURED BY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE BANDING PRIMARLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC SEEN IN THE 200655Z 85 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TS 28W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KTS AROUND TAU 24. VWS WILL BECOME VERY STRONG BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. BY TAU 24, MODEL GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS INCREASING TO 285 NM BY TAU 72. AROUND TAU 48, TS 28W WILL TURN SLIGHTLY POLEWARD AS IT DISSIPATES BY TAU 72 UNDER HIGH VWS EAST OF TAIWAN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TWO OUTLIERS (JGSM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN) THAT SHOW A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE AND AN INCREASED TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RECURVING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN