Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory Wed Nov 20

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OBSCURED
BY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE BANDING PRIMARLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LLCC SEEN IN THE 200655Z 85 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS). FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TS
28W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KTS AROUND TAU 24. VWS WILL
BECOME VERY STRONG BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE
RAPID WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. BY TAU 24, MODEL GUIDANCE
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS INCREASING TO 285 NM BY TAU 72. AROUND TAU 48, TS
28W WILL TURN SLIGHTLY POLEWARD AS IT DISSIPATES BY TAU 72 UNDER
HIGH VWS EAST OF TAIWAN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TWO OUTLIERS (JGSM AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN) THAT SHOW A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE AND AN INCREASED
TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
RECURVING MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
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