MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS)OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDS LOOSELY FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 160529Z SSMI NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25KTS AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING YAP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WEAK CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 03W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STR. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT MAY PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF MINDANAO WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER, AFTER TD 03W MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DAVAO. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT UP TO 330 NM BY TAU 72, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN