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Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory Sun Dec 01

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE PRESENT IN A 010427Z
AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGE. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION AND NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING AFTER A PERIOD
OF STAGNANT DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TY
KAMMURI IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 24, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY
DUE TO DECREASING VWS AND SUPPORTIVE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TY 29W WILL
THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WHERE IT WILL
STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE
THE STR, CAUSING A SUBSEQUENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU
72 WHEREUPON TY 29W WILL ENTER INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 60NM SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, WINDS FROM A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT
WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE 29W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 96 THIS
NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW WILL THEN DRIVE TY 29W SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A RAPID DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. TY 29W WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BETWEEN
TAU 96 AND TAU 120 AS A RESULT. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD (300NM) IN
MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF TY 29W WITH THE
SURGE EVENT, THUS LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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