MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 998 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CDO, THANKS TO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A PARTIAL 282205Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. T4.5 (77 KTS) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ARE ABOVE A 281641Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 59 KTS, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS. MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TY 29W IS TRACKING BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR), ONE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE OTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 29W WILL TURN WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND TY 29W WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 105 KTS BY TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FALLS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY AIDS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. WITH ABOUT 115 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 72, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES PRIOR TO TAU 120. BY TAU 120, TY 29W WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AS TY 29W PASSES OVER THE PHILIPPINES DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN. WITH ABOUT 135 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 120, NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.// NNNN NNNN