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Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory Thu Nov 28

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM NORTH OF YAP,
HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS AND
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
280704Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS
AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD AND A 280408Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS. ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND A VERY WARM (30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BREAK
THE STEERING STR AND DRIVE TY 29W NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE COL
AND INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE. AROUND TAU 24, AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSES, A NEWLY-FORMED STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD, REORIENT,
AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KAMMURI WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE SECONDARY STR AND OVER THE VERY WARM PHILIPPINE SEA TOWARD
SOUTHERN LUZON, PHILIPPINES. INCREASED SHEAR, DRY AIR AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT ARE POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTORS TO DECREASED INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 96 AND 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, NAVGEM STILL
DEPICTS AN EARLY RECURVE TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE STORM MOTION
UNCERTAINTY IN THE COL, THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IN THE LATER TAUS.//
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