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Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory Tue Nov 26

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (KAMMURI)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH EXPANSIVE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A BROAD, OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 260647Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE BROAD, ILL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35KTS REFLECTS
THE CONTINUED, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND IS BASED ON
MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (PGTW/35KTS)
AND 2.0 (RJTD/30KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). TS 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 29W WILL CONTINUE ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR THROUGH
TAU 24, PASSING APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
AFTERWARD, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR
AND CAUSE 29W TO TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. LOW VWS, COUPLED
WITH WARM SST WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT BEGINS THIS POLEWARD TRACK, EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING TO 90KTS BY
TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 29W WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT BEGINS TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD BETWEEN THE CURRENT STR AND A
SECONDARY, BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHWEST. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM DRIVES POLEWARD. THE LARGE
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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