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Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Advisory Thu Nov 14

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
320 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY
AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST FLANK ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 140649Z SSMI 85GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES, HOWEVER; DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND SHALLOW
BANDING IS WEAK OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS, THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON A 140133Z ASCAT-B IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED
AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WARM SST(29C) AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TD 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTARD FOLLOWING THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, SLOWING AS
THE STR WEAKENS TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE. AFTER TAU 48, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM, STEERING IT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LUZON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD, NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK OVER LUZON. BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN
THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE OBSERVED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING TO THE NORTH. PASSAGE OVER LAND WILL RESULT IN
STEADY WEAKENING. MODEL SPREAD PERSISTS INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
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