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Tropical Storm HALONG Advisory Sun Nov 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (HALONG)
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 030633Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SST (29-
30C) AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. AS A RESULT OF THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING AND IS CURRENTLY
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 030246Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TS 24W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 24W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, TS 24W WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO
A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 120. TS 24W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND COOLER SST, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A GALE FORCE
COLD-CORE LOW AT TAU 120 WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EGRI AND AFUI, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE. AFTER TAU 72,
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS, THEREFORE,
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY.//
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