Issued: 1000 Thursday 20th September 2018
Duty forecaster: David Hulse
Heavy rain and strong winds at first, then improving
Low pressure moving in from the west will bring a spell of rain to many parts on Sunday. Some of the rain will be heavy with a risk of localized flooding, most likely in Northern England, and with gales in exposed locations. Improving for most early next week, though, as an intense high builds.
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Low pressure and associated fronts move east across England and Wales with high pressure becoming centred to the west of Ireland. Rain, some heavy, over Ireland, England and Wales and perhaps Southern Scotland, clearing gradually from the west as sunny intervals and mostly dry weather spread to all areas, although some showers are likely in the north and west, especially over Scotland. Strong winds with the rain over Ireland, England and Wales with a risk of gales in exposed locations. On the chilly side for many parts, highs 10 to 13C in the north and west, 14 to 17C in the southeast and with values depressed in any heavy rain.
High pressure to the west of Ireland transfers east to cover much of the British Isles. Some showers at first in the north and west but becoming dry generally with a good deal of sunshine. Remaining cool, highs 12 to 15C.
An intense high over the British Isles edges south, allowing a warm front to brush the north of Scotland. Staying dry with spells of sunshine for most but with rain or drizzle moving into the north and west of Scotland later. Strong winds developing in the north and west with gales for northwest Scotland. Staying on the cool side but with milder night time temperatures of the north and west of Scotland. Highs 13 to 17C.
Pressure remains high over Southern Britain but with a cold front near to Northern Scotland. Dry and sunny in Ireland, England, Wales and much of Southern Scotland. Cloudier in the north with rain or drizzle, although this becoming mainly confined to exposed northern and western areas. A shade milder for most parts, highs 15 to 18C in the north, locally 19 to 20C in the southeast.
The centre of the high in the south declines, with a new high becoming centred to the west or northwest of Ireland. Rain or drizzle at times in the north and west of Scotland, otherwise dry with spells of sunshine. Highs 13 to 17C in the north, a fairly warm 20 to 23C in the south.
Pressure remains high to the west of Ireland with a ridge extending east, although this may start to decline in the north and east later. Mostly dry with spells of sunshine and just the slight of an isolated light shower, although the risk of showers increases in the north and west of Scotland later. Cooler and fresher again, highs 11 to 14C in the north, 15 to 18C in the south.