Issued: 1000hrs Friday 13th October 2017
Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson
Risk of flooding in north-west midweek
Hurricane Ophelia will transition into a powerful post-tropical storm as it approaches the British Isles from the south-west on Monday. Stormy conditions are expected for Ireland, whilst gales may affect the west & north of Britain overnight into Tuesday. During midweek, a strong south-westerly wind brings a risk of further prolonged rainfall for the hills in the west & north-west.
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A lot of high level cloud, but some hazy sun is likely. Murky around south-western coasts, possible fog. Patchy rain north & west, some persistent falls Scotland & Ireland. Local heavy bursts may track northwards through the day, but the south & east should stay dry. Threat of gales later around the Irish Sea, and very stormy for southern Ireland. Highs 20 to 24C central & southern areas, but cooler north, 13 to 16C Scotland & N.Ireland.
Overnight into Tuesday, a risk of widespread gales for the north & west of Britain, and much of Ireland. Rain affects these areas too. Elsewhere blustery with local showers possible. Staying breezy into the daytime. Western Scotland and Northern Ireland may stay wet most of the day. Dry and bright elsewhere, with sunny spells, and feeling fresher. Temperatures 12 to 15C north & west, up to 17 or 18C south-east.
A strong south-westerly pattern is expected to bring fronts back in from the Atlantic. A possibility of prolonged heavy rain for western hills in Scotland, north-west England and Wales. Risk of flooding. Wet too for the north & west of Ireland. Cloudy for many places, but largely dry in central, east & southern areas, although some rain may develop later. Highs 12 to 15C north & west, up to 17 to 19C east & south.
Confidence is low later in the week: A cold front may clear to bring fresher and showery conditions. Sunny spells. Breezy, west or north-westerlies, and feeling cooler than previous days. Highs 10 to 16C.
Pressure may briefly build from the west, leading to a cool start. Rain may return from the Atlantic into Ireland and western Britain. Drier east & south. Highs 10 to 15C.
Further rain is possible for the west & north, but south-eastern areas may escape dry. South-westerly winds. Temperatures 11 to 16C.