Issued: 1100hrs Monday 19th June 2017
Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson
Risk of thunderstorms midweek
The current hot spell will transition into a thundery breakdown in midweek as humidity builds and fronts spread in from the Atlantic. Much fresher conditions will arrive by the end of the week, leading to a rather changeable outlook for the rest of June, although the far south may see further very warm days into next week.
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A cold front passing slowly east across central-southern Britain brings a risk of thundery bursts of rain - timing uncertain. Ahead of this zone, south-east England could see a very hot and humid day with hazy sun. Behind the front in the north & west, expect fresher conditions with variable cloud and a few showers. Breezy in the north-west. Temperatures 16 to 21C north & west, 24C Midlands, perhaps topping 30C in south-east.
A fresher westerly airflow is likely to exist across the British Isles, with low pressure centred north of Scotland. Largely dry with sunny spells in the south & east, whilst the west & north-west is likely to see a mix of sunshine and showers, rain locally frequent for western Scotland & Northern Ireland. Breezy, particularly in the north. Cooler than recent days, especially in the south, highs 16 to 24C.
Detail uncertain, but a general westerly pattern is likely. Outbreaks of rain or showers, most frequent in western areas, but some heavy bursts may pass east across southern England, where it may be rather humid. Occasional sunshine. Cool and breezy in the west & north. Temperatures ranging from 13 to 23C, warmest in the south-east.
Confidence of detail is low, but an increasingly unsettled is expected heading into the final part of June. Low pressure becoming established close to the British Isles. Areas of rain likely, persistent locally, whilst there should also be drier and brighter areas where it may stay dry all day. Warm and humid in the south-east, cool toward the north. Highs 14 to 25C.
Low pressure probably focused to the west of the British Isles. Humid in the south & east, with a risk of thundery rain developing. Some brighter areas with sunny spells. A threat of more organised rain in the west of Britain, also Ireland. Highs 15 to 25C.
Low confidence: Cool with a risk of rain in the west & north, warmer and humid with a possibility of thunderstorms in the south-east. Temperatures ranging between 14 and 25C.