Issued: 0900 Wednesday 14th June 2017
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling
A very warm and dry weekend but much uncertainty for next week/b>
Pressure will be rising into the weekend and this is going to be bringing dry weather with long spells of sunshine. It will become very warm too. Into next week confidence in the forecast deteriorates quickly with two weather scenarios being possible. The first is that thundery showers and rain may pass east through the UK and Ireland with fresher weather following. The alternative is for high pressure staying in control and the weather remaining dry and warm. Our favoured option at this time is for thundery rain.
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High pressure building over the south of the country on Saturday with a ridge extending northwards. This brings a fair day with plenty of sunshine for much of the country. Cloudier skies at times in western Scotland and western Ireland and there is a risk of some rain arriving in northwest Scotland later. Highs at a very warm 28C in southern England, 16C in the far northwest of Scotland.
A cold front slips south through Scotland and Ireland on Sunday bringing a band of cloud and some light showery rain. Brighter to the north with sunny spells and a few showers on western and northern coasts. Drier and brighter weather across England, Wales and southern Ireland. Lengthy periods of sunshine for many. Highs at a very warm 29C in southern England, 14C in northern Scotland and Northern Ireland.
A ridge of high pressure extends through the UK and Ireland on Monday. There will be some broken cloud but sunny spells too. Some thundery showers may develop later in southeast England and East Anglia. Drier and brighter to the west with some good spells of sunshine for Wales and Ireland. Tops at 13C in northern Scotland, 26C in southern England.
Confidence is low in the forecast for Tuesday. Current thoughts are that thundery showers begin to break out in southern England, Wales and southern Ireland. Northern parts of England, the north of Ireland and Scotland should be dry with sunny spells. Highs at 17C in northern Scotland, 24C in southern England.
Low confidence again in the forecast for Wednesday. The worst case scenario is that thundery rain will affect southern areas as an area of lower pressure passes east. Some showers in western Scotland and western Ireland, perhaps drier in the east of Scotland. Highs at 14 to 22C.
Confidence remains low on Thursday. Any thundery rain is likely to clear from southern and eastern areas on Thursday. Some showers to the north and west and feeling fresher for all too. Temperatures at 13 to 20C.