Tropical Storm NOUL Advisory Tue May 05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM EAST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING 050016Z
METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE TIGHTLY-WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND 042003Z
RAPIDSCAT WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS NOUL IS NOW LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS
06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS
FORECASTED TO BUILD AND REORIENT, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE
AND SHIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE VWS AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
ALLOWING TS 06W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD INDICATING A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER YAP. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR
PERHAPS INTENSIFY FURTHER AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
GENERALLY FAVORABLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CTCX AND GFDN, THE BULK
OF MODEL TRACK FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE COME SLIGHTLY TOGETHER.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, JTWC FORECAST OVERALL
CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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