MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 09// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH DEVELOPING FEEDER BANDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310051Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND APPROXIMATELY 75 PERCENT OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 302255Z 37 GHZ CORIOLIS IMAGE ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON PERIPHERAL STORM INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 02W IS A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING POLEWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE, AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER HO CHI MINH CITY BY TAU 36. THE LIGHT VWS, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TS 02W TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL INLAND AND DISSIPATED. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR WHICH HAS FLIP-FLOPPED FROM A DUE POLEWARD TRACK TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN