Tropical Storm MAWAR Advisory Tue Jun 05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. SIX-HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AS IT IS ENTRENCHED DEEPER INTO THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES. A RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM OKINAWA
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS WIDENED AND HAS BECOME MORE
ELONGATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND THE
RADAR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING
AND WARMING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED FURTHER POLEWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM. THIS IS READILY EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY
04W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TYPHOON MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12, BECOMING A
STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. DURING THIS TRANSITION, THE
INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DUE TO PERSISTENTLY STRONG VWS (IN
EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS) AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (BELOW 26
CELSIUS). THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
DUE TO THE TIGHT ENVELOPE OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.    //
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