Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory Sat Sep 20

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RE-CONSOLIDATE AFTER IT CROSSED
THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI LOOP SHOWING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
ON A WARM SPOT ON THE 192233Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE STORM IS IN A COL AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT
IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHORTENED TO 72 HOURS IN
ANTICIPATION OF AN EARLY DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THE RAPID DISSIPATION
IS DISCUSSED IN PARA 3.B. BELOW.
   B. TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24 AND DRAG ACROSS CENTRAL TAIWAN BEFORE
TURNING ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE EASTERN CHINESE
SEABOARD AS THE STR BUILDS BACK. DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TAIWANESE AND CHINESE TERRAINS AND INCREASING VWS, THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 72 JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
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