Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Advisory Sun Aug 12

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
445 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED
AS CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS DEEPENED (AS EVIDENCED BY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS), AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A
121153Z SSMI-S 37 GHZ COLOR-ENHANCED SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS WITH A
FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INTERPOLATED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND, KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS TO THE NORTH IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STR WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST, EXITING EASTWARD
INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK INTENSITY AT 55 KNOTS
BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RECEDED STR, AND MAKE LANDFALL NORTH
OF HONG KONG AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE MINIMAL NUMBER OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST.    //
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