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Seasonal outlook - July 08, 2012
Rain until September?
It really could!

Issued: Saturday 7th July 2012
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Pressure begins to the rise to the west of the British Isles with a ridge topping across all areas, the westerly flow weakening as high pressure builds in, the weather settling at long last. There is still the indication that in the short term there is likely to be westerly flow across more northern areas, this carrying cloudier conditions and patchy rain at times, sunny breaks to sheltered eastern areas.
A weak anticyclone develops and settles over the UK to bring all areas at least a few days of settled and fine weather....this could be summer folks so make the most of whatever may be delivered here as there's no confidence on this pattern that it'll last. By mid-month high pressure will be weakening with low pressure to the west or northwest beginning to approach from the west, thickening cloud and patchy rain into western and north-western Britain on a freshening southerly of south-westerly breeze.
From mid-August onwards the pattern indicates that 'summer's gone'....the Atlantic becoming once more the focus for attention, a series of low pressure systems bringing rather unsettled and cool conditions into all areas of the UK, windy at times with gales in the north.
Some indications that a recovery in pressure may take hold across southern counties of England, this perhaps only reinforcing the westerly flow as low pressure will be maintained to the northwest and north, the emphasis still distinctly unsettled.

Still unsettled through the opening of September...but just as autumn begins....the weather settles as a large anticyclone develops and takes up station over the UK. Through until the beginning of the second week, high pressure looks as if it'll be in control, settled and fine, pleasantly warm in the autumnal sunshine and light winds, but distinctly chilly overnight under clear skies.
High pressure begins to draw back westward during mid-month, the pattern cooling and destabilising into showers of lengthier spells of rain from the west of northwest for a time before the conditions settle once more, the western anticyclone drifting eastwards into the near continent, warming for a time as a southerly establishes ahead of rain bearing Atlantic low pressure moving into western Britain
It looks as autumn arrives with a vengeance into the third week, wet and windy weather tracking into the UK with heavy rain and strong winds, the pattern taking on a much more unsettled scenario, limited drier and settled weather as high pressure is likely to transitory.

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