Month ahead - September 15, 2012
Valid from 30/11 to 27/12 2011
Here comes Autumn

Issued: Saturday 15th September 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob


Autumn is making an appearance whether we like it or not......

High pressure looks as if it'll be asserting an influence on the pattern...but we're not quite there yet....an anticyclone is expected in the short term to take up station to the west of the British Isles during the shorter term, feeding a cool flow of rather showery conditions down through all areas. The brightest and driest weather will be concentrated across areas sheltered from the north-westerly breeze, southern, south-eastern and eastern Britain the most favoured spots, here too though some showery rain can be anticipated as weaken bands of cloud move southward.

* .....25th*
Around the 21st high pressure may begin to exert a stronger influence as a developing anticyclone drifts into the UK, conditions settling in a quiet autumnal few days , although the anticipation is that it won't last, as hard on its 'eastward drift' low pressure will be following from off the Atlantic.

This lowering of pressures will push thickening areas of cloud, bands of rain into western Britain and a strengthening southerly to south-westerly flow into western Britain. The east and south of the UK will remain largely dry for a while longer but here too cloud will thicken with outbreaks of showery rain moving east, as western areas brighten and turn cooler and showery.

With higher pressure maintained to the east of the UK, low pressure may well stall over the British Isles as we move into the period of the 28th-30th, the weather remaining rather showery and cloudy at times. The flow remaining from the south or southwest for much of the time, showers are expected to become lighter and more scattered across eastern and southern areas as pressure to the east builds.

*1st to 15th October*
As we move into the new month, high pressure located over central Europe is looking as if it'll build across the UK, pushing the remnants of any unsettled and showery rain westward, all areas becoming drier and brighter, if a bit chillier.

The first 10 days of October looks as if they'll be dominated by high pressure, this likely to be affecting all areas initially, although later more northern areas will pick up a more westerly oriented flow with cloud and patchy rain spilling in from off the Atlantic. The bulk of the UK will be mainly fine and dry, settling into a typical early autumn regime of pleasantly sunny days with broken cloud after the clearance of any overnight mist and fog; it will be chillier where this lingers for any length of time.

There seems little to suggest that this pressure distribution will alter during the period up to mid-month, high pressure persisting across southern Britain and Western Europe. A strengthening southerly breeze across the UK, showers breaking out through western areas, all remaining regions largely dry.

Simon & Capn Bob
Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk


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