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Month ahead - September 05, 2012
Valid from 05/09 to 05/10 2012
Summer a memory

Issued: Saturday 1st September 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Bye,Bye, Baby, Baby Goodbyeeeee...

Summer, if you can call it that will soon just be a memory...we've already basically endured continual months of 'autumn'...another three to go until winter?

High pressure looks as if it'll be featuring in the forecast pattern during this month rather more frequently than it has been seen for some time, its strength however will be quite variable, centred mostly to the west or northwest for much of the time, its influence mostly seen as intermittent riding rather than centred directly over the top of the UK.

Its exact positioning will determine both the characteristics and distribution of cloud amounts and temperature, the signals are that it'll be drier than recently, but not necessarily an overly warm direction to the flow, predominantly expected to be from the northwest or north.

The middle of September seems best placed to see the warmest temperatures of the month, before the Atlantic looks set to deliver quite an unsettled spell of weather as we enter the final week, the flow distinctly westerly and dominated by low pressure.

Through the shorter term, high pressure will be in control to the west or southwest, ridging through southern Britain at times, so it'll be here that the driest and warmest conditions will be found.
Northern areas of the UK should see benefit from this anticyclone too, but it will be more limited than further south, a more westerly orientated flow from off the Atlantic will bring more in the way of cloud and patchy rain from time to time, this breaking up and becoming less organised as it heads south into central Britain.
Best of the sunshine and temperatures across southern Britain, locally warm at times given shelter from the north-westerly or westerly breeze. Hints that late in the period rather more organised areas of cloud and rain will affect all areas as it generally turns more unsettled.

Generally more unsettled here for a time as low pressure to the west or northwest slips into the UK.

Showers or longer spells of rain are expected to affect all areas, some of this may be heavy at times and accompanied by strong winds, temperatures suppressed as a result. The persistent rain clears away into cooler conditions blustery showers and sunny spells these will be easing back as pressure rises to the west, western and northern Britain becoming drier as a ridge of high pressure builds into the UK.

*15/09/2012 .... 20/09/2012*
A drier and warmer slot here as high pressure drifts slowly across the UK, the whole country seeing at least a few days of settled and drier weather, pleasantly warm in the sunny spots and light winds, although there'll be generally variable cloud amounts across the country.
Chilly overnight, some mist and fog developing where skies remain clearest the longest, clearing away into sunny spells and patch cloud in most areas. Western area clouding over later in the period as the anticyclone continues its 'trundle' across the UK into the near continent, a freshening southerly flow establishing with showers breaking out ahead of more general rain which will affect western and northern Britain as the period closes.

*21/09/2012 ....30/09/2012*
The weather looks as if it'll turn much more unsettled here as low pressure takes control, rain and strong winds moving through all regions.
Low pressure crossing close to northern Britain brings the threat of gales to exposed areas of the north and west, bands of rain followed by showers, heavy and blustery following from the northwest, moving south and east through all of the UK.

Simon & Captain Bob
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