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Month ahead - May 16, 2012
Valid from 16/05 to 15/06 2012
An elusive summer

Issued: Saturday 12th May 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Where is the spring and the summer.....That was once yours and mine? ANDERSON, STIG / ANDERSSON, BENNY GORAN BROR / ULVAEUS, BJOERN K.

That sentiment has been echoing around my mind for some time and through the shorter term anything resembling either late spring or early summer looks like being as elusive as it seems to have been since that all too early burst of spring-like weather back in March.
I do have a belief that at least temperatures will be recovering to nearer normal values, interspersed with short warm and rather humid conditions delivered primarily through imported parcels during the transition of low pressure systems. This may give a hint that the pattern will through the short term at least remain rather unsettled in nature with further spells of rather heavy rain at least Mother Nature is attempting to do her level best to redress at least some of the rainfall we can't have it always!
There is the prospect of a build of pressure later in the month, exactly where is debatable, although I believe that it'll be to the north or north-west of the British Isles, low pressure remaining to the south or southeast. This scenario should see western and northern Britain becoming drier and sunnier with some pleasant warmth, whilst southern England see further outbreaks of rain and rather cloudy, if occasionally humid conditions for the most part.
The beginning of June sees the greatest potential for something akin to summer as high pressure builds through the UK, this lingering into the second week of the month. So a spell of summer weather establishes and it becomes rather warm everywhere, this may not be long-lived as cooler and showery weather seeps south-eastward on a north-westerly, the result of high pressure retreating westward into the mid-Atlantic.

Through this shorter term period there really doesn't look like there'll be any let up in the rather unsettled weather.
Low pressure will be in control of the pattern and this will generate further spells of rain, some of on the heavy side accompanied by strong to fresh winds at times as the systems track close to or over the UK. Temperatures will be variable, occasionally warm and humid as the systems pass through, cooler and fresher as the systems clear into a north-westerly flow. Any drier and brighter conditions are expected to be transitory, clearer skies overnight coinciding with more northerly sourced air will lead to the threat of ground and a limited air frosts.

*23/05/2012.....02/06/12 *
It is through this period when a pattern shift is expected to take place, high pressure should feature more strongly in the forecast, although it is anticipated to be too far away to the west to bring any reasonable warmth to the UK just yet.
Low pressure should remain as a feature to the south and south-east, this coupled with a developing region of high pressure to the west or northwest of the British Isles will swing the flow around to the north or northwest across western Britain, potentially an east to north-easterly across more southern and eastern areas.
Western and north-western Britain will be the most favoured regions to see the best of any drier and brighter conditions, given shelter and lengthy sunnier spells it'll be pleasantly warm. Eastern and southern Britain will be cloudier at times with outbreaks of rain and a keen north to north-easterly breeze at times; this will make it feel distinctly cool across coastal areas exposed to the cloud, rain and wind. Sheltered areas will fair more favourably with sunnier breaks and lighter winds, seeing more in the way of drier spells too later.

*03/06/2012 - 10/06/2012*
Summer should arrive here for more of the UK, although at first there may be a hangover of cloud and cool conditions across southern and eastern Britain.
High pressure to the west should drift into the British Isles, all area becoming dry and sunny. Light winds and lengthy sunny spells will make if feel warm, locally very warm later as a more southerly flow establishes. Coastal areas may become cloudier and cooler at times with an onshore breeze, some showers developing too. These may become quite widespread through inlands areas later in the period for a time, triggered by some imported warm and humid air off the near Continent.

*10/06/2012 - 15/06/2012*
The early summer weather may not hold beyond this period. High pressure looks as if it'll be on the decline and 'drift', edging slowly westwards allowing cooler and fresher conditions to seep south and east on a developing and potentially keen north-westerly.
The flow then gently swings into a mainly westerly orientated direction with some cloud and patchy rain approaching western and north-western Britain, the remainder of the UK seeing broken cloud and a scattering of showers.

Simon & Capn Bob
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