Seasonal outlook - June 08, 2012
Some warmth July
August ubnsettled

Issued: Friday 8th June 2012
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob



*July*
July begins unsettled with low pressure close to the UK, June's 'headache' of rather unsettled and cool weather extending into the new month. Period of rain and quite brisk winds at times only slowly moving away, a regime of heavy showers and sunny spells left in its wake.
Some recovery of pressure takes place, especially across southern parts during the second week, sunnier and brighter over England and Wales with lengthier spells of sunshine it'll be feeling warmer than recently. Showers or longer spells of rain affecting northern Britain, these showers beginning to die away as pressure slowly rises.
During the second week of July an anticyclone is expected to be developing across the UK, this then likely to drift north-eastward, so it'll become warmer and settled for a time. This is not expected be prolonged though, especially across England and Wales as low pressure will be pushing up from the south, dislodging high pressure and its rather summery weather, replaced with unsettled and thundery weather pushing northwards.
Through the middle of July the pattern indicated a slack area of low pressure sitting over the UK, this bringing the threat of heavy thundery showers and sunny spells. As this area of low pressure begins to fill and clears away eastward, rising pressure to the west will dampen the showery activity down and allow cooler and showery weather to slip southeast. There is some indication of a recovery of pressure taking place to the west with a ridge building through England and Wales, with lower pressure remaining to the north where here it remains unsettled.
Through the latter stages of 'High Summer' it looks as if low pressure dives into the UK from the west or northwest bringing a return of rather unsettled weather with heavy rain to all areas.

*August*
It will be easier in this forecast to pick out when it'll be drier and settled, which will only take a few lines....errmmmm...perhaps for a few days only during the beginning of the second week) then again around the middle of the third week, where in between a mainly low pressure dominated patter, high pressure extends or builds in sufficient strength to provide some drier and warmer conditions. This drier and brighter weather across southern Britain soon gets eroded as low pressure takes control of this British Summer.
August in totality at the moment doesn't look brilliant at all, very little to add then it may be a umbrella month rather than a bucket and spade job...very little point in placing any detail here at such an extended range and low confidence...Summer in the UK, 2012 style.

Simon
Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk


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