Seasonal outlook - March 02, 2012
Unsettled late April
Improving through May

Issued: Friday 4th March 2012
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob



*April*
High pressure is in control of the pattern through the beginning of the month, so primarily the emphasis will be on mainly dry and settled conditions for the bulk of the UK, there is some hint of weak lower pressure to the south or southwest so perhaps the risk of showery activity across southern and south-western Britain but this is expected to weaken as pressure rises generally everywhere through the first week.
High pressure looks as if it'll be the dominant feature through into the second week of April when the pattern does looks as if it'll be destabilising as pressure falls across the whole of the UK and conditions turn generally more unsettled with showers of longer spells of rain appearing quite widely.
This unsettled weather may not be long-lived anyone hoping for a prolonged spell of wet weather may be very disappointed as by mid-month high pressure reasserts quite strongly and then looks like persisting throughout the remainder of the month. The winds mainly light and variable, the direction determined as to exactly where the main anticyclone is centred, this drifting about, so fortunes as to whether it is sunny or cloudy variable as will the temperature, local and terrain variations very evident.
Late in the month there is evidence that it may turn unsettled as pressure falls and it once again becomes rather more unsettled generally.

*May*
There appears to be a north-south divide during the opening week of May, high pressure established as a large feature to the north, lower pressure across southern Britain, mainly fine across Scotland and northern England whilst southern areas are rather more unsettled with an easterly flow potentially.
High pressure edges south for a time through the second week so fortunes improving across southern Britain, the north remaining mainly fine and dry also, through the middle of the month however all areas look as though they'll be affected by outbreaks of rain and stronger winds as low pressure takes charge.
High pressure takes control during the third week and for a time it may become rather warm, dry and sunny, however there is strong evidence for a general breakdown into cooler and more showery conditions quite widely as low pressure moves across the UK, this potentially heralding the beginning of quite an unsettled spell of weather for early summer?

Simon
Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk


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