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Seasonal outlook - September 06, 2012
Colder late October
Chilly again November

Issued: Saturday 1st September 2012
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*October 2012*
October should see higher pressure with some ridging across southern Britain, with a mainly light westerly across more northern area, therefore England and Wales is likely to see mainly dry weather, with broken cloud and some sunny spells, northern England and Scotland along with the Northern Ireland is expected to be rather more unsettled with patchy rain and a brisker westerly breeze. For a short while high pressure may build into sufficient strength to settle the conditions across the whole UK, so the prospect of a few days of nationwide pleasant mid-autumnal weather, mist and fog at night with the possibility of inland frost, pleasant enough during daylight hours with variable cloud amounts and sunny spells. The emphasis through until mid-month is however for a north to south divide, mainly dry to the south with some high pressure ridging, northern Britain rather more mixed at times, the westerly flow strengthening at times to bring passing gales.
It looks as if the beginning of the third week sees the flow swinging into a strengthening north-westerly, so the temperatures tumbling and showers becoming blustery and widespread across the whole UK. Turning markedly colder and unsettled as we approach months end, potentially wintry showers over higher parts of Scotland, after a chilly interlude the month closes on a mainly brisk westerly and unsettled note.

November begins with the same scenario of noticeable high pressure ridging across central Britain, lower pressure across northern area, here it'll be unsettled and a cooling trend soon setting in, central areas drier whilst the far south sees some showery activity developing. Pressure rises across all of southern Britain for a time, the north seeing a brisk and unsettled westerly through to mid-month.
It turns colder with a northerly blast of arctic air flooding south with high pressure building to the west, an anticyclone developing and sitting over the UK, frost and fog becoming widespread through central Britain.
A strengthening southerly develops through the third week of November as low pressure approaches from the west, breaking through into an unsettled regime with potentially stormy weather to close the month.
A north to south divide is likely to develop across the UK during the latter stages of the month as pressure begins to rise generally through England and Wales, so some drier and summer-like weather here, rather more mixed across the northern half of the British Isles.

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