Seasonal outlook - October 29, 2014
Cooler December
Unsettled January

Issued: Tuesday 28th October 2014
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Garry Nicholson

Note low confidence levels in our long range forecast for December and January.
Current indications for December are that the month may start chilly with high pressure to the east, and a southeast flow affecting many areas.
This will bring dry weather to Scotland and much of northern and eastern England, but more unsettled to the west.
There is the possibility of a breakdown into more unsettled conditions through the middle and later stages of the month, this thanks to the westerly winds breaking through for a time as the high pressure retreats. It is possible that a significant snow event may occur for a few days mid month as the milder Atlantic air, battles with the cooler continental air.
By the end of the month, several models indicate a trough established to the west, high pressure to the east and a southerly flow as a result. This brings mostly mild conditions, drier weather in the east, although a wetter west. Note that at times there could be some incursions of colder weather from the east.

A more unsettled month is indicated for January. The break through of strong westerly winds bringing heavy rain and strong winds, and there is and a risk of gales, particularly so in the north and west.
However, it may be that the jet stream does push further south for a while mid month, allowing high pressure to build through the UK, and introduce a much drier and cooler spell, and perhaps bringing the threat of some snow, especially to northern England and Scotland.

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