Issued: 1300hrs Tuesday 31st July 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob
'Blink and you've missed it'....may become the epitaph for summer 2012?
If anyone 'blinked' and missed it....well I'm very much afraid to say that last week, which contained some very pleasantly warm weather was indeed possibly summer folks...so hope you enjoyed it?
Previous patterns had identified this 'break' in the rather indifferent summer conditions we've endured and I have to say that there is no indication of anything remotely resembling that which we've recently enjoyed, save for a brief return of something 'less unsettled' around mid-August.
For much of the coming forecast the Atlantic will have the upper hand with unsettled conditions extending well into August, only brief and transient drier weather between rather active systems, the most likely identified period being around mid-August when pressures rise to the west of the UK, the south and east remains unsettled.
There is a hint of drier weather establishing across southern Britain late in the forecast period as pressure rises over England and Wales, a westerly flow covering remaining northern areas.
The rather unsettled weather looks likely to extend its influence right through this period....so no real sign of any extensive dry or warm weather establishing, yes there will undoubtedly be some areas which see pleasantly warm, sunny spells, this is summer, but these will be limited to sheltered areas and between systems moving across the UK.
Some areas will experience rather cool and windy conditions at times, which will depress the overall temperature; there will also be some noticeable rainfall for many areas.
Later in the period, there is the hint that western areas will see fewer showers as pressures begin to rise generally, a cool and showery north to north-westerly flow covering much of the UK.
The pattern here shows that pressure will be high to the west-northwest and lower to the south or southeast, northern and western Britain seeing some drier and brighter weather whilst the south and east remains unsettled beneath a general northerly to north-easterly flow.
Southern and eastern Britain may see some heavy and thundery showers developing throughout the periods and a keen north-easterly breeze that'll keep the temperatures on the cool side for high summer. Northern and western regions closet to an anticyclone sitting to the west of the UK will benefit from drier and brighter spells and scattered showers. More general cloud and rain approaching as the period closes. 26/08/2012......01/09/2012 An alteration in the pattern here as a ridge extends across the UK and topples south and east, a westerly flow establishing through northern Britain with some rain expected, fortunes in the south improving, becoming drier and brighter here for a time.
Simon & Captain Bob
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