Issued: Saturday 14th July 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob
Hope springs eternal in the human breast? Alexander Pope.
After all the evils had been allowed to escape from Pandora's Box, I believe that finally although frail and fragile, 'Hope' emerged into the sunlight?
There is always 'hope' in any seemingly futile situation and there is at least some last vestige of faith within my heart that we will see something akin to summer before August is upon us and we then begin to tumble into autumn...that said I don't believe this will be extensive or long lasting.
Pressure should begin to rise through the third week of July, bringing at least a brief but pleasant spell of summery weather, that said it won't be 'blistering' either and there'll always be showery activity in the forecast.
As we move into August the pattern again shows signs of destabilising with low pressure taking hold once more from off the Atlantic, more general rain and cloud affecting all regions of the UK. Pressures will be on the rise again as we approach mid-August, high pressure taking up station perhaps to the north or northwest, the flow having a more continental origin, so warming across many areas, the east perhaps plagued by cooler conditions, the southwest and west seeing showers breaking out with lower pressure to the west.
I have a feeling that high pressure may strengthen to the northwest, pressures falling to the south or southeast, a brisk, keen easterly breeze taking hold across England and Wales, where temperatures will be falling away, showers breaking out quite widely, remaining drier and brighter across northern and north-western areas beneath high pressure.
Through the short term period conditions look set to remain rather unsettled with a cool showery regime still in effect, longer spells of rain too can be expected as showers either gang together or more organised areas of precipitation associated to low pressure move through or close to the UK.
There will always be drier and brighter intervals in between, where given prolonged or lengthier spells of sunshine it will inevitably feel pleasantly warm in High Summer sunshine.
Showers should begin to die away later in this period as pressure begins to rise to the west or southwest a ridge extending its influence into western areas of the UK.
Through this period pressure should rise...that said I think it will be lax in nature rather than a strong anticyclonic influence, but given what has gone before it will be more like summer. It'll be a rather mixed bag of fortune through this period, high pressure bringing pleasantly warm sunny breaks in between areas of nuisance value cloud and scattered showers. Some showers could become heavy and thundery across southern Britain, drier and warmer through western and northern Britain.
High pressure will weaken, the UK falling under the influence once more of low pressure, at first this may be rather shallow and weak, but there are signs that the pattern will become more unsettled as the focus of attention shifts westward once more.
Although scattered at first showers will become more widespread and heavier as we move into the beginning of August, replaced by thicken cloud and outbreaks of more organised rain associated with low pressure approaching western Britain.
Late in this period rather unsettled weather looks as if it'll be affecting all areas of the UK, so in effect back to 'square one' in terms of temperature and rain...summer back on hold for now.
Although unsettled at first there does seem to be a hint in the pattern that high pressure will be extending a ridge into the UK, so initially western areas then remaining districts will see an improving situation.
Cloud and rain affecting eastern Britain should clear to showers followed by drier and warmer weather for many areas...will it last....well, I have a hunch that it" be the north and west that fair the best for the longest. Initially warming up everywhere for a time...the sunshine and warmth may become confined to western Britain...eastern regions cooling and clouding over with heavy showers developing on a strengthening easterly flow.
Simon & Capn Bob
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