Issued: Saturday 7th April 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob
'Quem deus vult perdere, dementat prius'
It is almost beyond belief that there should be so much ill-informed media reporting tied in with the fluctuating conditions over recent week; one should remember that this is spring and therefore the weather will bounce around quite dramatically. The UK is where it is geographically and therefore in spring we should expect to experience the inherent characteristics of contrasting air masses with local topographic variations quite dramatic as a consequence, but why let facts get in the way of a good headline! 'Whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad".....end of message'.
Looking back through the previously issued forecast I did use the phrase 'who'd have thought it eh' when relating to possibility of the weather being in such contrasts when it became time to issue an update.............Well 'who'd had thought it eh'?
The previous pattern has performed reasonably well, within the allowed 'parameters' pining down the anticipated change from anticyclonic dominated conditions to a progressively cooler or colder unsettled scenario. Once the pattern is broken it is then the task of attempting to see the 'next pattern switch' or and whether this will be a 7 - 10 day wonder or a longer term 'lock' of 3 weeks or more perhaps?
On the current evidence, which I have to say is a little tenuous at the moment is that a brief recovery in pressure is expected mid-month this soon however being eroded by continued mixed spring weather, it isn't until the end of April that high pressure looks as if it'll rise, possibly as a 'block' to the northeast? The pattern into the beginning of May looks as if it'll see high pressure in control.
Through this period the unsettled weather continues. All areas of the UK should see further spells of rain and cool weather. Some of this rain will be heavy, welcome in many areas, but perhaps contributing little to redress the deficit where it's required so much. It'll often be windy at times too, particularly across the west and northwest, low pressure quite active as it passes close to the UK.
Some drier and brighter spells will be seen between the bands of rain, these showers will be 'beefy' and included hail and snow for the highest ground at times, mainly for northern areas.
A cooler and fresher feel to the conditions everywhere, with a recovery in pressure taking place to the north or northwest, a lax northerly to north-westerly flow establishing across the UK.
Showers will continue across all areas a tendency for these to be a tad wintry over northern higher ground, but these should begin to ease everywhere as pressure rises generally and conditions improve for a time.
However this improvement is not expected to be protracted as further spells of generally showery rain continues to affect all areas.
*23/04/2012 - 28/04/2012*
Rather more unsettled here for all areas once more. Low pressure looks as if it'll be close by perhaps atop the UK for a time.
Rain some of it heavy at times will move through all the UK, followed by showery and brighter conditions. Showers will once again becoming heavy and potentially thundery with hail, some drier and brighter spells between with pleasant sunshine on offer. The bands of showers may merge together into lengthier spells of rain at times as low pressure becomes slow moving close to the UK this slowly filling and eventually slipping away at the end of the period.
*29/04/2012 - 10/05/2012*
It'll be here that there is the 'strongest' evidence that a rise in pressure takes place that will be sustainable and 'breaks the pattern' albeit temporarily.
An anticyclone should be developing across the UK, this becoming slow moving. Although its intensity is at the moment debatable, at best the pattern may be 'lax at risk' of being there should be a good deal of fine weather on offer mainly due to the intensity of the spring sunshine, the inherent characteristics of the air mass still chilly.
Due to the weak nature of the anticyclone, some showery activity is still possible although limited to mainly inland areas as the convection kicks in during the morning.
Simon & Capn Bob
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