Issued: Monday 19th March 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob
As one pass through life you obviously do pick up one or two little 'talents' or 'tricks' to see you through, it is a shame that one of them is not the ability of 'seeing around corners' as this would be particularly useful in forecasting the weather at the longer range, so you have to rely upon mainly instincts and gut feelings to see you through, with a generous helping of previous experience?
My 'gut feeling' is at the moment that this dry and settled pattern can't and won't last, 'Mother Nature' in her never ceasing quest for balance, will redress the deficit of rainfall in the not too distant future. That said, I think that even standing on tip toe, on top of a pair of step ladders you can only just see over the distant horizon to a more unsettled pattern? We will possibly shortly be saying 'who'd have thought it eh?'
If the available evidence is correct, then it'll be the beginning of April before the pattern destabilises, low pressure grabbing hold of the pattern by the neck and wringing every possible ounce of moisture out of the atmosphere as it turns unsettled through all areas. They'll be a recovery in pressure during mid April, debatable exactly where and too how strong for a time, but as the forecast period closes there is evidence that all areas will become more settled and cooler everywhere.
Through this period high pressure is firmly in control, essentially dry and settled everywhere, temperatures all over the place, elevated in some areas as warmer continental air is drawn into the circulation, whilst geographic and topographic factors also play as part in local variations. Rainfall will be conspicuous by its absence; some showery activity is possible although this is likely to be localised and well scattered.
Mist and fog is possible overnight, as is localised inland frost, clearing to sunny spells and pleasant temperatures or lifting into dull, overcast and low cool, cloudy conditions, such will be the variability.
*03/04/12 - 12/04/12*
It'll be around this period where on current evidence that I assume it'll becoming more unsettled and cooler everywhere as high pressure declines and its influence is cast into the longer grass.
It'll become progressively cooler and unsettled with spells of wind and rain for all areas, low pressure taking control from off the Atlantic. Breezy at times especially for northern and western Britain where gales can be anticipated, any drier and brighter conditions transients between in any showery bouts of weather between Atlantic systems.
*13/04/12 - 16/04/12*
Some recovery in pressure here across southern Britain, so more in the way of drier and brighter spells across England and Wales.
It remains unsettled across remaining areas with further spells of rain and bands of showers as low pressure remains close by. Here too later it becomes drier as pressure begins to rise.
*17/04/12 - 20/04/12*
A rise in pressure generally across the UK, an anticyclone settling to the west or northwest, all areas become drier and brighter but also noticeably colder.
Simon & Capn Bob
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