Issued: 0900 Wednesday 4th May 2016
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling
Becoming warmer and muggy with rain in the south, a drier north
Becoming much warmer over the coming days with increasingly muggy conditions into the weekend. A tendency for low pressure to develop to the south of the country and higher pressure to the north. This results in an easterly wind, but one which brings cloud and showery outbreaks of rain over the southern half of the UK and Ireland, drier to the north.
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The area of low pressure drifts close to southern Ireland on Saturday. An area of rain associated with the low will be affecting much of Ireland during the day, with further spells of patchier rain in Wales, southwest England and southwest Scotland. Drier to start in eastern parts of England, but then rain probably slipping into northern England and Scotland during the afternoon. Turning drier in the south and east of England and Wales and feeling increasingly muggy here too. Highs at 10C in northern Scotland, 22C in southeast England.
Little changes on Sunday with low pressure staying to the south. There will be a fair amount of cloud and some periods of showery, thundery rain through much of western England and Wales. There will be some brighter spells developing in the east and south and it will become particularly warm where the sun breaks through. The most persistent and heavier showers are likely across Wales and western Scotland. Probably drier for eastern Scotland and eastern England, although low cloud and drizzle will drift onto the coasts here. Highs at 24C in southern England, 18C in Ireland.
The east to southeast flow is expected to continue through Monday, with low pressure towards the south and high-pressure to the north of Scotland. This leads to broken cloud and some showery outbreaks of rain in much of England and Wales, but drier and brighter conditions in Scotland. Continuing to feel muggy in the south. A brisk east wind. Tops at 18 to 22C.
Not much change on Tuesday with the easterly flow continuing as low pressure stays to the south, with high pressure to the north. There will be more cloud and outbreaks of showery rain for southern England and Wales, as well as southern Ireland. Brighter and dry for northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland with some reasonable spells of sunshine here. Eastern coasts of England will be cooler with the risk of some low cloud. Rather windy too. Tops at 17 to 21C.
The winds turning more east to north easterly on Wednesday bringing some cloud and rain to southern Ireland, Wales and southern England. Most other areas will be drier and brighter with some good spells of sunshine. Staying windy. Temperatures reaching 14 to 21C.
High pressure stays to the north of Scotland with low pressure to the south. Showers again affecting the south of the UK and Wales. Drier in northern England and Scotland with good spells of sunshine here. Breezy in the north with highs at 16 to 20C.